Nevada and South Carolina are currently the top candidates being considered to lead the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, based on discussions with members of a key committee within the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
“At this moment, I would say it’s about a 50-50 chance,” remarked one anonymous member of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, who was permitted to share insights from private discussions. “This decision will be challenging.”
This week, the committee is convening in Washington, DC, to determine up to five states for the early primary period, concluding a lengthy campaign by various states aiming for a prominent position on the calendar. The committee plans to present its recommendations to the full DNC for consideration next month.
The RBC member indicated that the committee is focusing on two possible scenarios that would aim to balance representation among states with significant Black and Latino populations.
In one scenario, Nevada would take the lead, followed by South Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire, and potentially another southern state, likely Virginia.
Alternatively, South Carolina could go first, followed by Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The inclusion of New Mexico, known for its substantial Latino population, in the early window alongside Nevada would serve as a form of “consolation” for the Latino community, which may feel underrepresented in the first primary state, according to the RBC member.
“Many believe this kind of balance is necessary,” they remarked.
Advocates for Nevada highlight the state’s diversity, robust labor unions, and its competitive nature as compelling reasons for Democrats to assign it the top position.
“If Nevada is first, it represents a strategic move for our party as we work towards forming the coalition necessary to reclaim the White House in 2028,” stated Daniele Monroe-Moreno, chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, in a conversation with USdaily. “Nevada is the testing ground for national candidates, without question.”
The state’s supporters emphasize that they not only have a significant Latino voting demographic but also a diverse population that encompasses Black, Asian American, Pacific Islander, Native American, and White working-class voters.
“We have consistently communicated our focus on appealing to a wide coalition of diverse voters, rather than prioritizing one group over another,” wrote Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Steven Horsford in a letter to RBC members obtained by USdaily.
The New York Times first reported South Carolina and Nevada’s rise as the leading candidates.
In 2024, South Carolina was moved to the first position at the request of former President Joe Biden. Proponents of maintaining its top position cite a series of Republican-led efforts targeting Black electoral strength, which include an unprecedented mid-cycle redistricting initiative and the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act. They argue that keeping South Carolina in the lead would highlight the significance of voting rights for the Black community.
Supporters of South Carolina have also highlighted its track record of selecting eventual Democratic primary winners, including Biden, whose victory in the state in 2020 revived his lagging presidential campaign.
“We’ve consistently recounted the history of South Carolina during this process and how our voters have always made the right choice,” said Christale Spain, chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party and an RBC member.
While Nevada and South Carolina vie for the top positions, the final configuration of the remaining slots remains uncertain.
“There are countless factors to consider,” noted another RBC member, who expressed a preference for Nevada and South Carolina in the top two positions but had not been briefed on the lineups discussed by the first member.
Two additional sources, a third RBC member and an individual familiar with the committee’s considerations, indicated that Virginia and New Mexico are likely in contention for the fifth slot on the calendar.
A vigorous, yearslong lobbying effort
For many years, both political parties have traditionally kicked off their presidential nomination processes with the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Recently, South Carolina and Nevada have secured the subsequent positions on the Democratic calendar, with other states participating on or after Super Tuesday.
However, in preparation for the 2024 presidential primaries, Democrats opted to implement a system requiring states to apply for early window slots in each election cycle. The DNC decided to designate South Carolina as the first primary state during the 2024 cycle at the request of then-President Biden.
This time, there isn’t a prominent figure influencing the process, say RBC members. This has initiated a prolonged period of lobbying from various state parties and their supporters.
Nevada, which has two representatives on the RBC, has been particularly proactive in its efforts, according to multiple RBC members speaking to USdaily.
Nevada Democrats have organized receptions for DNC members at party events throughout this year, including one ahead of this week’s meeting. Monroe-Moreno mentioned that members of the state’s congressional delegation would be present at a reception on Wednesday. Supporters, including former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is running for governor in California, along with Latino organizations like CHC BOLD PAC, have publicly endorsed Nevada’s bid.
“I doubt anyone has lobbied harder than Nevada,” Spain noted, adding that she and Monroe-Moreno maintain a friendly relationship and that the competition over the calendar has not turned personal. “Naturally, being from the South, we adopted a different strategy.”
South Carolina’s supporters have been actively lobbying both publicly and privately, emphasizing the importance of honoring the party’s commitment to Black voters. In a nine-page letter sent to RBC members earlier this month and obtained by USdaily, former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, a Biden ally and South Carolina native, wrote that history will evaluate whether “the Democratic Party had the courage to honor the voters who have consistently supported it.”
New Hampshire and Iowa’s uphill battles
However, the former frontrunner states are not backing down easily.
Ray Buckley, chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party and a member of the RBC, has been personally advocating for his state to other committee members. His party has distributed promotional items, including numerous copies of Granite State resident Ken Burns’ latest book, during the RBC’s January meeting in Puerto Rico.
“We’ve concentrated on having individual discussions with committee members, and we are optimistic about their outcomes,” Buckley remarked in a statement to USdaily.
Nevertheless, those efforts have not significantly influenced some committee members.
“There appears to be a lack of interest, except perhaps from Ray Buckley, for New Hampshire to retain the first position,” noted one member, adding that some RBC members are inclined to exclude the state from the early window entirely.
Iowa no longer has representation on the RBC, but state party chair Rita Hart has been reaching out to committee members, requesting a postponement of the calendar decision until after the November elections. Iowa Democrats are facing competitive races for governor, US Senate, and three US House seats, which could enhance their chances for an early window position.
“We’ve received feedback from several states suggesting that it would be unwise to make this decision now,” Erin Moynihan, a senior communications adviser for the Iowa Democratic Party, stated to USdaily. “Our focus must remain on achieving success in November.”
However, RBC members indicated a lack of interest in delaying the decision. The second committee member mentioned receiving two calls from the Iowa chair after the state made its appeal to the panel, but both were directed to voicemail.
“I can’t see anything Iowa could do or say that would convince me to support them,” the member expressed in a text to USdaily.
This headline has been updated.
